February 07, 2013
Understanding Elo Ratings Part Two
Now that we understand the theory behind Elo ratings, let’s take a look at how to calculate them and how to make them more relevant to football...
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Insights, research, and analysis on football analytics
January 31, 2013
Understanding Elo Ratings
The Elo rating system was originally devised by its creator Arphad Elo as a way to calculate the average skill levels of two chess players. Although the system was created specifically for chess it has also been adapted to many other games and sports, including international f...
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January 25, 2013
Predicting Football Matches Using Shot Data Part Two
Having found that the correlation between goals scored and shots on target was the strongest of the various shooting variables I had available to me, I decided to see how well they could predict the outcome of a football match....
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January 22, 2013
What Is The Chance of Bradford City reaching Wembley?
With League Two’s Bradford City only one match away from playing at Wembley in the League Cup final I thought it would be interesting to see what the chances were of them getting this far...
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January 21, 2013
Predicting Football Matches Using Shot Data
Previously on this blog I have discussed my attempts at using the Poisson distribution to predict the number of goals scored in football matches. So far, the results have been...
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January 18, 2013
Predicting The Premier League Using The Refined Pythagorean Equation
New article for Betting Expert looking at the current Premier League standings compared with the predictions from my refined version of the Pythagorean Expectation.
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January 02, 2013
How Early In The Season Can Pythagorean Predictions Be Made?
The next stage for developing my refined version of the Pythagorean equation is to characterise how many weeks of data it actually needs to make accurate football predictions...
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December 15, 2012
What Has Caused Dimitar Berbatov’s Recent Lack of Goals?
Up until week 12 of the season, Dimitar Berbatov was one of the English Premier League’s top goal scorers and goal creators. However, since then he has gone 450 minutes without registering either a goal or an assist, coinciding with Bryan Ruiz’s injury...
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December 10, 2012
Using the Pythagorean Expectation Across Leagues Wordwide
The next stage for my Pythagorean's development is to testing whether it can be applied to leagues outside the EPL. Having one Pythagorean equation that could be used globally is preferable to having to create specific equations for each league.
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December 03, 2012
Applying the Pythagorean Expectation to Football: Part Two
Part two of guide to applying the baseball pythagorean to football.
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