Insights, research, and analysis on football analytics
A couple of weeks back I demonstrated how the EI is more accurate than the bookies based on rank probability scores but a few people have asked if I can do something a bit simpler so...
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The use of Total Shot Ratio (or TSR) seems to have slowly been gaining ground so I thought it would be worth analyzing the statistic in more detail to see what it can and cannot do.
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After last week’s international matches, domestic football is finally back so here are this weekend’s match predictions using my EI predictive model. Let’s see if it can keep up its good form and continue to beat the bookmakers!
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Unfortunately time caught up with me last week and I was unable to post any predictions from my Eastwood Index. However, since then I have been busy validating the results to see how accurate the predictions really are using the 296 matches played in the English Premier League...
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As well as using my EI Index to predict future matches, it can also be used to look back at how team’s performances have changed over time. An interesting example is Liverpool, who sacked Kenny Dalglish at the end of the 2011–2012 season to bring in Brendan Rogers from Swansea City.
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Here we go again!
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Since last week’s predictions turned out to be so popular I thought I would continue testing the EI index in public so here are this week’s predictions. Fingers crossed they turn out well again!...
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Last week was a big test for my new EI index – it had finally reached the point where I was confident it was working well enough to post its predictions in public.
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For a bit of fun, here is a trial run at predicting this weekend’s EPL matches using my EI ratings. I haven’t compared these with anyone else’s odds yet but they generally look about what I would have expected....
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On the whole, the Elo system works okay but it was not designed with football in mind and so there are some issues with it - for example it can only handle two distinct outcomes – winning and losing...
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