Insights, research, and analysis on football analytics
Why most finishing metrics are flawed and how a Bayesian approach gives us a truer picture of a player's finishing ability...
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A simple guide to stripping the overround and finding the real probabilities behind the bookmaker's odds...
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v1.5.0 delivers interactive charts, faster models, upgraded football probability grid, and a powerful Flow query language - all designed to make your analysis sharper and quicker...
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A data-driven deep dive into how accurately bookmakers price global soccer markets...
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MatchFlow just got smarter, friendlier, and more powerful for optimizing your pipelines, visualizing your data flow, and keeping your data clean...
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MatchFlow is a JSON-native query engine for football data - no flattening, no fuss...
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Why the Ranked Probability Score might be misleading your football model evaluations, and what to use instead....
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A smarter, football-focused alternative to Elo — using Pi Ratings to track team strength and predict matches...
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Comparing football goals models — Poisson, Dixon-Coles, and more — to see which predicts best and how to optimize them...
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This article walks through how to calculate expected threat in Python using linear algebra instead of the original convergence method...
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