Blog | penaltyblog

Published on March 10, 2025 by Martin Eastwood

Comparing football goals models — Poisson, Dixon-Coles, and more — to see which predicts best and how to optimize them...

Published on January 08, 2025 by Martin Eastwood

This article walks through how to calculate expected threat in Python using linear algebra instead of the original convergence method...

Published on December 02, 2022 by Martin Eastwood

This article walks through how to estimate goal expectancies from bookmaker's odds using Python...

Published on November 04, 2022 by Martin Eastwood

My penaltyblog python package has been updated to v0.5.1 to include new Bayesian football (soccer) models and web scrapers...

Published on October 18, 2022 by Martin Eastwood

It's been ten years since I started this blog...

Published on August 05, 2022 by Martin Eastwood

This article shows how to use the penaltyblog python package to scrape football data...

Published on August 25, 2021 by Martin Eastwood

This article looks at how to predict football results using a Bayesian hierarchical model built in Python and PyMC3...

Published on June 24, 2021 by Martin Eastwood

Building on the last article, we upgrade our Poisson model with the Dixon and Coles adjustment and time decay...

Published on June 18, 2021 by Martin Eastwood

A tutorial about predicting football results using Python and the Poisson distribution...

Published on May 19, 2021 by Martin Eastwood

Using my Player Ratings model to identify the best footballing prospects...

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