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Published on July 16, 2025 by Martin Eastwood

A data-driven deep dive into how accurately bookmakers price global soccer markets...

Published on June 10, 2025 by Martin Eastwood

MatchFlow just got smarter, friendlier, and more powerful for optimizing your pipelines, visualizing your data flow, and keeping your data clean...

Published on May 25, 2025 by Martin Eastwood

MatchFlow is a JSON-native query engine for football data - no flattening, no fuss...

Published on May 01, 2025 by Martin Eastwood

Why the Ranked Probability Score might be misleading your football model evaluations, and what to use instead....

Published on April 14, 2025 by Martin Eastwood

A smarter, football-focused alternative to Elo — using Pi Ratings to track team strength and predict matches...

Published on March 10, 2025 by Martin Eastwood

Comparing football goals models — Poisson, Dixon-Coles, and more — to see which predicts best and how to optimize them...

Published on January 08, 2025 by Martin Eastwood

This article walks through how to calculate expected threat in Python using linear algebra instead of the original convergence method...

Published on December 02, 2022 by Martin Eastwood

This article walks through how to estimate goal expectancies from bookmaker's odds using Python...

Published on November 04, 2022 by Martin Eastwood

My penaltyblog python package has been updated to v0.5.1 to include new Bayesian football (soccer) models and web scrapers...

Published on October 18, 2022 by Martin Eastwood

It's been ten years since I started this blog...

The Penalty Blog