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Penaltyblog v1.5.0: Faster Models, Smarter Queries, and a Sharper Edge

Published on August 14, 2025 by Martin Eastwood

v1.5.0 delivers interactive charts, faster models, upgraded football probability grid, and a powerful Flow query language - all designed to make your analysis sharper and quicker...

How Accurate Are Soccer Odds? A Data Dive into 250 Million Betting Lines

Published on July 16, 2025 by Martin Eastwood

A data-driven deep dive into how accurately bookmakers price global soccer markets...

MatchFlow 1.4.0: Optimizing, Visualizing, and Validating your Data Pipelines

Published on June 10, 2025 by Martin Eastwood

MatchFlow just got smarter, friendlier, and more powerful for optimizing your pipelines, visualizing your data flow, and keeping your data clean...

Introducing MatchFlow: a JSON-native query engine for football data.

Published on May 25, 2025 by Martin Eastwood

MatchFlow is a JSON-native query engine for football data - no flattening, no fuss...

Better Metrics for Football Forecasts: Moving Beyond the Ranked Probability Score

Published on May 01, 2025 by Martin Eastwood

Why the Ranked Probability Score might be misleading your football model evaluations, and what to use instead....

Pi Ratings: The Smarter Way to Rank Football Teams

Published on April 14, 2025 by Martin Eastwood

A smarter, football-focused alternative to Elo — using Pi Ratings to track team strength and predict matches...

Football Prediction Models: Which Ones Work the Best?

Published on March 10, 2025 by Martin Eastwood

Comparing football goals models — Poisson, Dixon-Coles, and more — to see which predicts best and how to optimize them...

Calculating Expected Threat in Python Using Linear Algebra

Published on January 08, 2025 by Martin Eastwood

This article walks through how to calculate expected threat in Python using linear algebra instead of the original convergence method...

Estimating Goal Expectancy From Bookmaker's Odds

Published on December 02, 2022 by Martin Eastwood

This article walks through how to estimate goal expectancies from bookmaker's odds using Python...

Penaltyblog Python Package Updated to v0.5.1

Published on November 04, 2022 by Martin Eastwood

My penaltyblog python package has been updated to v0.5.1 to include new Bayesian football (soccer) models and web scrapers...

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