Expected Goals And Exponential Decay

Posted by Martin Eastwood April 22, 2014 0 Comment 348 views
In my last article on expected goals I showed how to incorporate the distance from goal along the Y axis into the expected goal model using Pythagoras’ Theorem. This all worked pretty well, giving us an r squared value of 0.95. However, while...

Expected Goals: The Y Axis

Posted by Martin Eastwood April 16, 2014 9 Comments 538 views
Expected goals are one of the hot topics in the football analytics community at the moment and it’s a topic I’ve previously written a number of articles on discussing how to calculate them. If you haven’t read those pieces yet...

Introducing The Pena.lt/y Web App

Posted by Martin Eastwood April 11, 2014 7 Comments 383 views
I’ve been publishing various football odds and predictions on the site here since its inception so I thought it was time to get  a bit more organised about it. I’d started refactoring all my code recently to automate it so that the...

English Premier League Pythagorean Update

Posted by Martin Eastwood April 4, 2014 2 Comments 541 views
I’ve not posted an update on the Pythagorean for the English Premier League (EPL) for a while so the latest figures are below. Football Pythagorean In case you haven’t seen it before, my football Pythagorean is an adaptation of the baseball...

Expected Goals: Updated

Posted by Martin Eastwood March 1, 2014 0 Comment 693 views
When I introduced my Expected Goals model a few weeks back a number of people commented on the bump in the curve where I had included penalty shots in the data set used to fit the model. The reason I’d originally left penalties in was I felt...

Actual Goals Versus Expected Goals

Posted by Martin Eastwood February 15, 2014 0 Comment 772 views
Since my last post about how to calculate expected goals one question has come up more than any other and that is about the correlation between expected goals and actual goals so here you go: The correlations look pretty good, 0.86 for goals for...

Expected Goals For All

Posted by Martin Eastwood February 12, 2014 21 Comments 1912 views
It seems that everybody has their own expected goals models for football nowadays but they all seem to be top secret and all appear to give different results so I thought I post a quick example of one technique here to try and stimulate a bit of...

Comparing Players Using Cluster Analysis

Posted by Martin Eastwood February 10, 2014 4 Comments 1197 views
As there were a couple of presentations at the recent Opta Pro Forum talking about identifying player similarities I thought I’d give a quick example of how to do something similar using k-means cluster analysis. The Data All the data used in...

EPL 2013/2014: Football Pythagorean So Far

Posted by Martin Eastwood January 20, 2014 2 Comments 1199 views
Between work, life, kids etc it’s been a while since I posted much on my blog here but I managed to grab a little free time so I thought I’d add a post about how my football Pythagorean was looking for the English Premier League so far...

UEFA Champions League – route to the final

Posted by Martin Eastwood September 30, 2013 0 Comment 903 views
With the UEFA Champions League group stage now underway we’ve taken a quick look at what it typically takes for teams to reach the final. We started off by looking at how well teams from the major six domestic leagues (England, France, Italy,...
  • Anonymous

    Thanks a lot! :) I need to brush up on my stats …

  • Martin Eastwood

    I split the shots into different bins by distance …

  • Anonymous

    If you could run me through the process or maybe s …

  • Anonymous

    Poisson distribution of course. My bad! …

  • Anonymous

    Hey Martin, I had a very noobish doubt. Please …

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