English Premier League Pythagorean

Posted by Martin Eastwood November 4, 2014 0 Comment 748 views
I’ve not posted this for a while so here is the latest Pythagorean for the English Premier League. Football Pythagorean If you’ve seen this before, it’s an adaptation of the baseball Pythagorean that allows you to estimate how many...

Predicting Football Using R

Posted by Martin Eastwood November 2, 2014 10 Comments 1809 views
I recently gave a presentation to the Manchester R Users’ Group discussing how to predict football results using R. My presentation gave a brief overview of how to create a Poisson model in R and apply the Dixon and Coles adjustment to it to...

Expected Goals: Foot Shots Versus Headers

Posted by Martin Eastwood August 28, 2014 10 Comments 1523 views
My last article on expected goals introduced the concept of using exponential decay to estimate the probability of scoring based on the shooter’s distance from the goal. The article received lots of feedback (thanks everyone!!), with a couple...

Mathematically Optimising Your Fantasy Football Team

Posted by Martin Eastwood July 24, 2014 15 Comments 4045 views
The Premier League’s fantasy football is back ready for the new season so I thought I’d run through an example of how linear programming can help you select your team. If you haven’t come across linear programming before it’s...

Expected Goals And Exponential Decay

Posted by Martin Eastwood April 22, 2014 12 Comments 3578 views
In my last article on expected goals I showed how to incorporate the distance from goal along the Y axis into the expected goal model using Pythagoras’ Theorem. This all worked pretty well, giving us an r squared value of 0.95. However, while...

Expected Goals: The Y Axis

Posted by Martin Eastwood April 16, 2014 14 Comments 2345 views
Expected goals are one of the hot topics in the football analytics community at the moment and it’s a topic I’ve previously written a number of articles on discussing how to calculate them. If you haven’t read those pieces yet...

Introducing The Pena.lt/y Web App

Posted by Martin Eastwood April 11, 2014 12 Comments 2076 views
I’ve been publishing various football odds and predictions on the site here since its inception so I thought it was time to get  a bit more organised about it. I’d started refactoring all my code recently to automate it so that the...

English Premier League Pythagorean Update

Posted by Martin Eastwood April 4, 2014 2 Comments 1821 views
I’ve not posted an update on the Pythagorean for the English Premier League (EPL) for a while so the latest figures are below. Football Pythagorean In case you haven’t seen it before, my football Pythagorean is an adaptation of the baseball...

Expected Goals: Updated

Posted by Martin Eastwood March 1, 2014 0 Comment 1563 views
When I introduced my Expected Goals model a few weeks back a number of people commented on the bump in the curve where I had included penalty shots in the data set used to fit the model. The reason I’d originally left penalties in was I felt...

Actual Goals Versus Expected Goals

Posted by Martin Eastwood February 15, 2014 0 Comment 1945 views
Since my last post about how to calculate expected goals one question has come up more than any other and that is about the correlation between expected goals and actual goals so here you go: The correlations look pretty good, 0.86 for goals for...

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