## Expected Goals: Updated

Posted by Martin Eastwood March 1, 2014 0 Comment 285 views
When I introduced my Expected Goals model a few weeks back a number of people commented on the bump in the curve where I had included penalty shots in the data set used to fit the model. The reason I’d originally left penalties in was I felt...

## Actual Goals Versus Expected Goals

Posted by Martin Eastwood February 15, 2014 0 Comment 462 views
Since my last post about how to calculate expected goals one question has come up more than any other and that is about the correlation between expected goals and actual goals so here you go: The correlations look pretty good, 0.86 for goals for...

## Expected Goals For All

Posted by Martin Eastwood February 12, 2014 8 Comments 1158 views
It seems that everybody has their own expected goals models for football nowadays but they all seem to be top secret and all appear to give different results so I thought I post a quick example of one technique here to try and stimulate a bit of...

## Comparing Players Using Cluster Analysis

Posted by Martin Eastwood February 10, 2014 2 Comments 872 views
As there were a couple of presentations at the recent Opta Pro Forum talking about identifying player similarities I thought I’d give a quick example of how to do something similar using k-means cluster analysis. The Data All the data used in...

## EPL 2013/2014: Football Pythagorean So Far

Posted by Martin Eastwood January 20, 2014 2 Comments 962 views
Between work, life, kids etc it’s been a while since I posted much on my blog here but I managed to grab a little free time so I thought I’d add a post about how my football Pythagorean was looking for the English Premier League so far...

## UEFA Champions League – route to the final

Posted by Martin Eastwood September 30, 2013 0 Comment 837 views
With the UEFA Champions League group stage now underway we’ve taken a quick look at what it typically takes for teams to reach the final. We started off by looking at how well teams from the major six domestic leagues (England, France, Italy,...

## Analysing Football Teams Using Cluster Analysis and Principal Component Analysis

Posted by Martin Eastwood August 30, 2013 3 Comments 1455 views
The amount of football data available is growing rapidly – with every passing week of the season more matches are played and even more data gets collected. This is great as it allows us to increase our understanding of the game but it also...

## Anouncement

Posted by Martin Eastwood June 19, 2013 0 Comment 1555 views
You may have noticed that my blogging has slowed down over the past few weeks and the reason is that I have joined Onside Analysis. I am really excited about my new role as it means that I will be working on football analysis full time instead of...

## Betting With The Eastwood Index And Kelly Criterion

Posted by Martin Eastwood May 23, 2013 4 Comments 2852 views
I demonstrated in my last post that the odds calculated using the Eastwood Index were slightly more accurate than the bookmakers over the course of the football season. My next goal is to work out the optimal way of using this edge to make a profit,...

## Did The Eastwood Index Beat The Bookmakers?

Posted by Martin Eastwood May 21, 2013 19 Comments 3410 views
It’s the end of the season so it’s time to review how the Eastwood Index performed over the year and how it compared with the bookmakers. Ranked Probability Scores One of the most important aspects to me is how accurate the forecasts were and...
• #### Expected Goals: Updated

March 1, 2014 / No Comments
• #### Actual Goals Versus Expected Goals

February 15, 2014 / No Comments
• #### Expected Goals For All

February 12, 2014 / 8 Comments
• #### Comparing Players Using Cluster Analysis

February 10, 2014 / 2 Comments
• #### EPL 2013/2014: Football Pythagorean So Far

January 20, 2014 / 2 Comments
• #### Did The Eastwood Index Beat The Bookmakers?

May 21, 2013 / 19 Comments
• #### Rating Teams and Predicting Football Matches Using the EI Index

February 21, 2013 / 14 Comments
• #### Understanding Total Shot Ratio in Football

April 2, 2013 / 14 Comments
• #### Applying Elo Ratings To Football

February 7, 2013 / 13 Comments
• #### How Accurate Are The EI Football Predictions?

March 21, 2013 / 12 Comments
• #### Jamie

Hi Martin, Thanks for replying. In the paper …

• #### Martin Eastwood

If you're looking to use maximum likelihood to get …

• #### Jamie

Hi Martin, I wonder if you could point me in th …

• #### Martin Eastwood

It is collected from all over the Internet and the …

• #### Martin Eastwood

Yes, when I next get some free time and look at re …