Massey Ratings For Football Part Two

Posted by Martin Eastwood December 4, 2014 6 Comments 698 views
Introduction In part one I introduced Massey Ratings and how they can be used to rank football teams in a way that accounts for their strength of schedule. Next, we’ll take a look at how Massey Ratings can be extended further to look at team’s...

Massey Ratings For Football Part One

Posted by Martin Eastwood November 27, 2014 0 Comment 3333 views
Introduction We all know the league table can lie and one of the common causes of this is strength of schedule. Take Southampton, at the time of writing they are currently second in the Premier League twelve matches in yet still haven’t played...

English Premier League Pythagorean

Posted by Martin Eastwood November 4, 2014 0 Comment 1106 views
I’ve not posted this for a while so here is the latest Pythagorean for the English Premier League. Football Pythagorean If you’ve seen this before, it’s an adaptation of the baseball Pythagorean that allows you to estimate how many...

Predicting Football Using R

Posted by Martin Eastwood November 2, 2014 11 Comments 2367 views
I recently gave a presentation to the Manchester R Users’ Group discussing how to predict football results using R. My presentation gave a brief overview of how to create a Poisson model in R and apply the Dixon and Coles adjustment to it to...

Expected Goals: Foot Shots Versus Headers

Posted by Martin Eastwood August 28, 2014 10 Comments 1698 views
My last article on expected goals introduced the concept of using exponential decay to estimate the probability of scoring based on the shooter’s distance from the goal. The article received lots of feedback (thanks everyone!!), with a couple...

Mathematically Optimising Your Fantasy Football Team

Posted by Martin Eastwood July 24, 2014 17 Comments 4452 views
The Premier League’s fantasy football is back ready for the new season so I thought I’d run through an example of how linear programming can help you select your team. If you haven’t come across linear programming before it’s...

Expected Goals And Exponential Decay

Posted by Martin Eastwood April 22, 2014 12 Comments 4041 views
In my last article on expected goals I showed how to incorporate the distance from goal along the Y axis into the expected goal model using Pythagoras’ Theorem. This all worked pretty well, giving us an r squared value of 0.95. However, while...

Expected Goals: The Y Axis

Posted by Martin Eastwood April 16, 2014 14 Comments 2478 views
Expected goals are one of the hot topics in the football analytics community at the moment and it’s a topic I’ve previously written a number of articles on discussing how to calculate them. If you haven’t read those pieces yet...

Introducing The Pena.lt/y Web App

Posted by Martin Eastwood April 11, 2014 12 Comments 2219 views
I’ve been publishing various football odds and predictions on the site here since its inception so I thought it was time to get  a bit more organised about it. I’d started refactoring all my code recently to automate it so that the...

English Premier League Pythagorean Update

Posted by Martin Eastwood April 4, 2014 2 Comments 1892 views
I’ve not posted an update on the Pythagorean for the English Premier League (EPL) for a while so the latest figures are below. Football Pythagorean In case you haven’t seen it before, my football Pythagorean is an adaptation of the baseball...
  • Martin Eastwood

    Good idea, will post a follow up when I get chance …

  • marko

    teams of 12 players with requirement that one play …

  • Martin Eastwood

    Cool, look forward to reading it :-) …

  • Peter

    Hi Martin, I have given it a go (through Excel, …

  • Martin Eastwood

    It was all taken from my PostgreSQL database so yo …

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