Expected Goals: The Y Axis

Posted by Martin Eastwood April 16, 2014 9 Comments 467 views
Expected goals are one of the hot topics in the football analytics community at the moment and it’s a topic I’ve previously written a number of articles on discussing how to calculate them. If you haven’t read those pieces yet...

Introducing The Pena.lt/y Web App

Posted by Martin Eastwood April 11, 2014 5 Comments 315 views
I’ve been publishing various football odds and predictions on the site here since its inception so I thought it was time to get  a bit more organised about it. I’d started refactoring all my code recently to automate it so that the...

English Premier League Pythagorean Update

Posted by Martin Eastwood April 4, 2014 2 Comments 488 views
I’ve not posted an update on the Pythagorean for the English Premier League (EPL) for a while so the latest figures are below. Football Pythagorean In case you haven’t seen it before, my football Pythagorean is an adaptation of the baseball...

Expected Goals: Updated

Posted by Martin Eastwood March 1, 2014 0 Comment 676 views
When I introduced my Expected Goals model a few weeks back a number of people commented on the bump in the curve where I had included penalty shots in the data set used to fit the model. The reason I’d originally left penalties in was I felt...

Actual Goals Versus Expected Goals

Posted by Martin Eastwood February 15, 2014 0 Comment 753 views
Since my last post about how to calculate expected goals one question has come up more than any other and that is about the correlation between expected goals and actual goals so here you go: The correlations look pretty good, 0.86 for goals for...

Expected Goals For All

Posted by Martin Eastwood February 12, 2014 16 Comments 1855 views
It seems that everybody has their own expected goals models for football nowadays but they all seem to be top secret and all appear to give different results so I thought I post a quick example of one technique here to try and stimulate a bit of...

Comparing Players Using Cluster Analysis

Posted by Martin Eastwood February 10, 2014 4 Comments 1172 views
As there were a couple of presentations at the recent Opta Pro Forum talking about identifying player similarities I thought I’d give a quick example of how to do something similar using k-means cluster analysis. The Data All the data used in...

EPL 2013/2014: Football Pythagorean So Far

Posted by Martin Eastwood January 20, 2014 2 Comments 1189 views
Between work, life, kids etc it’s been a while since I posted much on my blog here but I managed to grab a little free time so I thought I’d add a post about how my football Pythagorean was looking for the English Premier League so far...

UEFA Champions League – route to the final

Posted by Martin Eastwood September 30, 2013 0 Comment 898 views
With the UEFA Champions League group stage now underway we’ve taken a quick look at what it typically takes for teams to reach the final. We started off by looking at how well teams from the major six domestic leagues (England, France, Italy,...

Analysing Football Teams Using Cluster Analysis and Principal Component Analysis

Posted by Martin Eastwood August 30, 2013 3 Comments 1570 views
The amount of football data available is growing rapidly – with every passing week of the season more matches are played and even more data gets collected. This is great as it allows us to increase our understanding of the game but it also...
  • Gummi

    Ah, there it is. Thanks again for the app, …

  • Martin Eastwood

    Thanks, making it continuous was important to me a …

  • Martin Eastwood

    Yes the 0 yards issue is a concern. I thought abo …

  • OI

    What I like best about your metric is that it is a …

  • Benjamin Lindqvist

    I.e.: http://fooplot.com/#W3sidHlwZSI6MCwiZXEiOiIx …

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