Articles Tagged "Betting"
From Biased Odds to Fair Probabilities: Removing the Bookmaker's Overround
Published on September 14, 2025 by Martin Eastwood
A simple guide to stripping the overround and finding the real probabilities behind the bookmaker's odds...
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How Accurate Are Soccer Odds? A Data Dive into 250 Million Betting Lines
Published on July 16, 2025 by Martin Eastwood
A data-driven deep dive into how accurately bookmakers price global soccer markets...
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Football Prediction Models: Which Ones Work the Best?
Published on March 10, 2025 by Martin Eastwood
Comparing football goals models — Poisson, Dixon-Coles, and more — to see which predicts best and how to optimize them...
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Estimating Goal Expectancy From Bookmaker's Odds
Published on December 02, 2022 by Martin Eastwood
This article walks through how to estimate goal expectancies from bookmaker's odds using Python...
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Predicting Football Results Using Python and the Dixon and Coles Model
Published on June 24, 2021 by Martin Eastwood
Building on the last article, we upgrade our Poisson model with the Dixon and Coles adjustment and time decay...
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Predicting Football Results With the Poisson Distribution
Published on June 18, 2021 by Martin Eastwood
A tutorial about predicting football results using Python and the Poisson distribution...
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