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Expected Goals Updated.
When I introduced my Expected Goals model a few weeks back a number of people commented on the bump in the curve where I had included penalty shots in the data set used to fit the model...
Actual Goals Versus Expected Goals.
Since my last post about how to calculate expected goals one question has come up more than any other and that is about the correlation between expected goals and actual goals..
Expected Goals For All.
It seems that everybody has their own expected goals models for football nowadays but they all seem to be top secret and all appear to give different results so I thought I post a quick example of one technique here to try and stimulate a bit of chat about the best way to model them.
Comparing Players Using Cluster Analysis.
As there were a couple of presentations at the recent Opta Pro Forum talking about identifying player similarities I thought I’d give a quick example of how to do something similar using k-means cluster analysis.
EPL 2013/2014: Football Pythagorean So Far.
Welome back! Now that I'm no longer part of Onside Analysis I'm free to start blogging again so let's start off by taking a look at how my football Pythagorean is doing for the English Premier League so far this season.
UEFA Champions League – Route To The Final.
With the UEFA Champions League group stage now underway I took a look at what it typically takes for teams to reach the final.
Analysing Football Teams Using Cluster Analysis and Principal Component Analysis.
The amount of football data available is growing rapidly – with every passing week of the season more matches are played and even more data gets collected. This is great as it allows us to increase our understanding of the game but it also means we quickly end up with more information than could ever be analysed manually.
Anouncement.
You may have noticed that my blogging has slowed down over the past few weeks and the reason is that I have joined Onside Analysis as a computational statistician.
Betting With The Eastwood Index And Kelly Criterion.
I demonstrated in my last post that the odds calculated using the Eastwood Index were slightly more accurate than the bookmakers over the course of the football season. My next goal is to work out the optimal way of using this edge to make a profit, starting off with the Kelly Criterion...
Did The Eastwood Index Beat The Bookmakers?.
It’s the end of the season so it’s time to review how the Eastwood Index performed over the year and how it compared with the bookmakers...
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