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Expected Goals And Support Vector Machines

Published on July 13, 2015 by Martin Eastwood

I've written about expected goals on this website before but I've changed approach recently so I thought I'd write up some of the different ideas I've been playing around with...

PlayerRatings And False Negatives

Published on April 23, 2015 by Martin Eastwood

My last article looked at how well my PlayerRatings model predict...

Backtesting PlayerRatings

Published on April 09, 2015 by Martin Eastwood

Following my last article discussing my Read More

PlayerRatings And Team Quality

Published on March 09, 2015 by Martin Eastwood

My previous article introduced PlayerRatings, a mathematical model I’ve been working on over the past few months to quantify the ability of individual footballers. One of the nice characteristics o...

PlayerRating: A Bayesian Method For Evaluating Football Players

Published on February 26, 2015 by Martin Eastwood

I originally submitted the idea behind this article to the recent Opta Pro Forum and although it was turned down I thought I’d write it up anyway incase anyone else was interested in the results......

Mathematically Optimising Your Fantasy Football Team: Update

Published on January 21, 2015 by Martin Eastwood

It's transfer window time so here's your mathematically optimised fantasy football team...

Massey Ratings For Football Part Two

Published on December 04, 2014 by Martin Eastwood

In part one I introduced Massey Ratings and how they can be used to rank football teams in a way that accounts for their strength of schedule. Next, we’ll take a look at how Massey Ratings can be e...

Massey Ratings For Football Part One

Published on November 27, 2014 by Martin Eastwood

We all know the league table can lie and one of the common causes of this is strength of schedule. Take Southampton, at the time of writing they are currently second in the Premier League twelve ma...

English Premier League Pythagorean

Published on November 04, 2014 by Martin Eastwood

I’ve not posted this for a while so here is the latest Pythagorean for the English Premier League.

Predicting Football Using R

Published on November 02, 2014 by Martin Eastwood

I recently gave a presentation to the Manchester R Users' Group discussing how to predict football results using R. My presentation gave a brief overview of how to create a Poisson model in R and a...

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