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Expected Goals And Exponential Decay

Published on April 22, 2014 by Martin Eastwood

In my last article on expected goals I showed how to incorporate the distance from goal along the Y axis into the expected goal model using Pythagoras’ Theorem. This all worked pretty well, giving ...

Expected Goals: The Y Axis

Published on April 16, 2014 by Martin Eastwood

Expected goals are one of the hot topics in the football analytics community at the moment and it’s a topic I’ve previously written a number of articles on discussing how to calculate them. If you ...

English Premier League Pythagorean Update

Published on April 04, 2014 by Martin Eastwood

I’ve not posted an update on the Pythagorean for the English Premier League (EPL) for a while so the latest figures are below.

Expected Goals Updated

Published on March 01, 2014 by Martin Eastwood

When I introduced my Expected Goals model a few weeks back a number of people commented on the bump in the curve where I had included penalty shots in the data set used to fit the model...

Actual Goals Versus Expected Goals

Published on February 15, 2014 by Martin Eastwood

Since my last post about how to calculate expected goals one question has come up more than any other and that is about the correlation between expected goals and actual goals..

Expected Goals For All

Published on February 12, 2014 by Martin Eastwood

It seems that everybody has their own expected goals models for football nowadays but they all seem to be top secret and all appear to give different results so I thought I post a quick example of ...

Comparing Players Using Cluster Analysis

Published on February 10, 2014 by Martin Eastwood

As there were a couple of presentations at the recent Opta Pro Forum talking about identifying player similarities I thought I’d give a quick example of how to do something similar using k-means cl...

EPL 2013/2014: Football Pythagorean So Far

Published on January 20, 2014 by Martin Eastwood

Welome back! Now that I'm no longer part of Onside Analysis I'm free to start blogging again so let's start off by taking a look at how my football Pythagorean is doing for the English Premier Leag...

UEFA Champions League – Route To The Final

Published on September 30, 2013 by Martin Eastwood

With the UEFA Champions League group stage now underway I took a look at what it typically takes for teams to reach the final.

Analysing Football Teams Using Cluster Analysis and Principal Component Analysis

Published on August 30, 2013 by Martin Eastwood

The amount of football data available is growing rapidly – with every passing week of the season more matches are played and even more data gets collected. This is great as it allows us to increase...

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