Articles Tagged "Expected Goals"

Opta Pro Forum 2018

Published on November 21, 2018 by Martin Eastwood

I finally wrote about the presentation I gave at the Opta Pro 2018 Forum....

Opta Pro Forum 2017

Published on March 11, 2017 by Martin Eastwood

I wrote up the poster presentation I gave at the 2017 Opta Pro Forum for the Opta Pro blog looking at using machine learning to quantify footballer's decisions....

Expected Goals and Uncertainty

Published on April 29, 2016 by Martin Eastwood

My Twitter feed seems to be increasingly taken up with discussions of Expected Goals in football yet there always seems to be something important missing from the discussion, and that's uncertainty...

Expected Goals: Foot Shots Versus Headers

Published on August 28, 2014 by Martin Eastwood

My last article on expected goals introduced the concept of using exponential decay to estimate the probability of scoring based on the shooter’s distance from the goal. The article received lots o...

Expected Goals And Exponential Decay

Published on April 22, 2014 by Martin Eastwood

In my last article on expected goals I showed how to incorporate the distance from goal along the Y axis into the expected goal model using Pythagoras’ Theorem. This all worked pretty well, giving ...

Expected Goals: The Y Axis

Published on April 16, 2014 by Martin Eastwood

Expected goals are one of the hot topics in the football analytics community at the moment and it’s a topic I’ve previously written a number of articles on discussing how to calculate them. If you ...

Expected Goals Updated

Published on March 01, 2014 by Martin Eastwood

When I introduced my Expected Goals model a few weeks back a number of people commented on the bump in the curve where I had included penalty shots in the data set used to fit the model...

Actual Goals Versus Expected Goals

Published on February 15, 2014 by Martin Eastwood

Since my last post about how to calculate expected goals one question has come up more than any other and that is about the correlation between expected goals and actual goals..

Expected Goals For All

Published on February 12, 2014 by Martin Eastwood

It seems that everybody has their own expected goals models for football nowadays but they all seem to be top secret and all appear to give different results so I thought I post a quick example of ...