# Poisson Articles

### Estimating Goal Expectancy From Bookmaker's Odds.

Posted: 2022-12-02 19:30:00+00:00. | By: Martin Eastwood.

This article walks through how to estimate goal expectancies from bookmaker's odds using Python...

### Predicting Football Results Using Bayesian Modelling with Python and PyMC3.

Posted: 2021-08-25 19:30:00+01:00. | By: Martin Eastwood.

This article looks at how to predict football results using a Bayesian hierarchical model built in Python and PyMC3...

### Predicting Football Results Using Python and the Dixon and Coles Model.

Posted: 2021-06-24 19:30:00+01:00. | By: Martin Eastwood.

Building on the last article, we upgrade our Poisson model with the Dixon and Coles adjustment and time decay...

### Predicting Football Results With the Poisson Distribution.

Posted: 2021-06-18 19:30:00+01:00. | By: Martin Eastwood.

A tutorial about predicting football results using Python and the Poisson distribution...

### Frequency of Draws in Football.

Posted: 2015-12-12 19:30:00+00:00. | By: Martin Eastwood.

There has been some discussion and misunderstanding around the low frequency of draws in football on my Twitter feed recently so I thought I'd just give a quick recap around why the probabilities of draws are so low...

### Predicting Football Using R.

Posted: 2014-11-02 19:30:00+00:00. | By: Martin Eastwood.

I recently gave a presentation to the Manchester R Users' Group discussing how to predict football results using R. My presentation gave a brief overview of how to create a Poisson model in R and apply the Dixon and Coles adjustment to it to account for dependance in the scores.

### The Poisson Model So Far.

Posted: 2012-11-02 19:30:00+00:00. | By: Martin Eastwood.

In my last article I wrote about my experiences using the Poisson distribution to predict the outcome of football matches. The results so far have been rather disappointing so I thought I would have a look at where things were going wrong.

### Using Poisson to Predict Football Matches.

Posted: 2012-10-29 19:30:00+00:00. | By: Martin Eastwood.

The Power Of Goals recently blogged about using the Poisson distribution to predict the outcome of football matches. I have been evaluating the predictive ability of the Poisson for the English Premier League (EPL) this season so I thought I would share my experiences too.