Category: "Poisson"

Estimating Goal Expectancy From Bookmaker's Odds

Published on December 02, 2022 by Martin Eastwood

This article walks through how to estimate goal expectancies from bookmaker's odds using Python...

Read More

Frequency of Draws in Football

Published on December 12, 2015 by Martin Eastwood

There has been some discussion and misunderstanding around the low frequency of draws in football on my Twitter feed recently so I thought I'd just give a quick recap around why the probabilities o...

Read More

Predicting Football Using R

Published on November 02, 2014 by Martin Eastwood

I recently gave a presentation to the Manchester R Users' Group discussing how to predict football results using R. My presentation gave a brief overview of how to create a Poisson model in R and a...

Read More

The Poisson Model So Far

Published on November 02, 2012 by Martin Eastwood

In my last article I wrote about my experiences using the Poisson distribution to predict the outcome of football matches. The results so far have been rather disappointing so I thought I would hav...

Read More

Using Poisson to Predict Football Matches

Published on October 29, 2012 by Martin Eastwood

The Power Of Goals recently blogged about using the Poisson distribution to predict the outcome of football matches. I have been evaluating the predictive ability of the Poisson for the English Pre...

Read More