There has been some discussion and misunderstanding around the low frequency of draws in football on my Twitter feed recently so I thought I'd just give a quick recap around why the probabilities of draws are so low...
I recently gave a presentation to the Manchester R Users' Group discussing how to predict football results using R. My presentation gave a brief overview of how to create a Poisson model in R and apply the Dixon and Coles adjustment to it to account for dependance in the scores.
In my last article I wrote about my experiences using the Poisson distribution to predict the outcome of football matches. The results so far have been rather disappointing so I thought I would have a look at where things were going wrong.
The Power Of Goals recently blogged about using the Poisson distribution to predict the outcome of football matches. I have been evaluating the predictive ability of the Poisson for the English Premier League (EPL) this season so I thought I would share my experiences too.