Articles in "Prediction"

Published on May 01, 2025 by Martin Eastwood

Why the Ranked Probability Score might be misleading your football model evaluations, and what to use instead....

Published on April 14, 2025 by Martin Eastwood

A smarter, football-focused alternative to Elo — using Pi Ratings to track team strength and predict matches...

Published on March 10, 2025 by Martin Eastwood

Comparing football goals models — Poisson, Dixon-Coles, and more — to see which predicts best and how to optimize them...

Published on August 25, 2021 by Martin Eastwood

This article looks at how to predict football results using a Bayesian hierarchical model built in Python and PyMC3...

Published on June 24, 2021 by Martin Eastwood

Building on the last article, we upgrade our Poisson model with the Dixon and Coles adjustment and time decay...

Published on June 18, 2021 by Martin Eastwood

A tutorial about predicting football results using Python and the Poisson distribution...

Category: "Prediction"