Category: "Prediction"
Better Metrics for Football Forecasts: Moving Beyond the Ranked Probability Score
Published on May 01, 2025 by Martin Eastwood
Why the Ranked Probability Score might be misleading your football model evaluations, and what to use instead....
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Pi Ratings: The Smarter Way to Rank Football Teams
Published on April 14, 2025 by Martin Eastwood
A smarter, football-focused alternative to Elo — using Pi Ratings to track team strength and predict matches...
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Football Prediction Models: Which Ones Work the Best?
Published on March 10, 2025 by Martin Eastwood
Comparing football goals models — Poisson, Dixon-Coles, and more — to see which predicts best and how to optimize them...
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Predicting Football Results Using Bayesian Modelling with Python and PyMC3
Published on August 25, 2021 by Martin Eastwood
This article looks at how to predict football results using a Bayesian hierarchical model built in Python and PyMC3...
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Predicting Football Results Using Python and the Dixon and Coles Model
Published on June 24, 2021 by Martin Eastwood
Building on the last article, we upgrade our Poisson model with the Dixon and Coles adjustment and time decay...
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Predicting Football Results With the Poisson Distribution
Published on June 18, 2021 by Martin Eastwood
A tutorial about predicting football results using Python and the Poisson distribution...
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