This article walks through how to estimate goal expectancies from bookmaker's odds using Python...
This article looks at how to predict football results using a Bayesian hierarchical model built in Python and PyMC3...
Building on the last article, we upgrade our Poisson model with the Dixon and Coles adjustment and time decay...
A tutorial about predicting football results using Python and the Poisson distribution...
There has been some discussion and misunderstanding around the low frequency of draws in football on my Twitter feed recently so I thought I'd just give a quick recap around why the probabilities of draws are so low...
I recently gave a presentation to the Manchester R Users' Group discussing how to predict football results using R. My presentation gave a brief overview of how to create a Poisson model in R and apply the Dixon and Coles adjustment to it to account for dependance in the scores.
In my last article I wrote about my experiences using the Poisson distribution to predict the outcome of football matches. The results so far have been rather disappointing so I thought I would have a look at where things were going wrong.
The Power Of Goals recently blogged about using the Poisson distribution to predict the outcome of football matches. I have been evaluating the predictive ability of the Poisson for the English Premier League (EPL) this season so I thought I would share my experiences too.