Articles Tagged "Poisson" | Penalty Analytics

Predicting Football Results Using Bayesian Modelling with Python and PyMC3

Published on August 25, 2021 by Martin Eastwood

This article looks at how to predict football results using a Bayesian hierarchical model built in Python and PyMC3...

Predicting Football Results Using Python and the Dixon and Coles Model

Published on June 24, 2021 by Martin Eastwood

Building on the last article, we upgrade our Poisson model with the Dixon and Coles adjustment and time decay...

Predicting Football Results With the Poisson Distribution

Published on June 18, 2021 by Martin Eastwood

A tutorial about predicting football results using Python and the Poisson distribution...

Frequency of Draws in Football

Published on December 12, 2015 by Martin Eastwood

There has been some discussion and misunderstanding around the low frequency of draws in football on my Twitter feed recently so I thought I'd just give a quick recap around why the probabilities o...

Predicting Football Using R

Published on November 02, 2014 by Martin Eastwood

I recently gave a presentation to the Manchester R Users' Group discussing how to predict football results using R. My presentation gave a brief overview of how to create a Poisson model in R and a...

The Poisson Model So Far

Published on November 02, 2012 by Martin Eastwood

In my last article I wrote about my experiences using the Poisson distribution to predict the outcome of football matches. The results so far have been rather disappointing so I thought I would hav...

Using Poisson to Predict Football Matches

Published on October 29, 2012 by Martin Eastwood

The Power Of Goals recently blogged about using the Poisson distribution to predict the outcome of football matches. I have been evaluating the predictive ability of the Poisson for the English Pre...