Insights, research, and analysis on football analytics
Last week was a big test for my new EI index – it had finally reached the point where I was confident it was working well enough to post its predictions in public.
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For a bit of fun, here is a trial run at predicting this weekend’s EPL matches using my EI ratings. I haven’t compared these with anyone else’s odds yet but they generally look about what I would have expected....
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On the whole, the Elo system works okay but it was not designed with football in mind and so there are some issues with it - for example it can only handle two distinct outcomes – winning and losing...
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Now that we understand the theory behind Elo ratings, let’s take a look at how to calculate them and how to make them more relevant to football...
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The Elo rating system was originally devised by its creator Arphad Elo as a way to calculate the average skill levels of two chess players. Although the system was created specifically for chess it has also been adapted to many other games and sports, including international f...
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Having found that the correlation between goals scored and shots on target was the strongest of the various shooting variables I had available to me, I decided to see how well they could predict the outcome of a football match....
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With League Two’s Bradford City only one match away from playing at Wembley in the League Cup final I thought it would be interesting to see what the chances were of them getting this far...
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Previously on this blog I have discussed my attempts at using the Poisson distribution to predict the number of goals scored in football matches. So far, the results have been...
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New article for Betting Expert looking at the current Premier League standings compared with the predictions from my refined version of the Pythagorean Expectation.
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The next stage for developing my refined version of the Pythagorean equation is to characterise how many weeks of data it actually needs to make accurate football predictions...
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